How many times have you seen this one arrive through your letterbox? Have you ever been tempted to go for it yourself?

It works like this, with a few variations.

You receive through your door a letter, personally addressed to you. It tells you that a certain tipster or individual with “inside information” is going to go for a “Maximum Bet” to fleece the bookies this Saturday (in about 3 – 5 days time). It invites you to be in on the deal as a way to introduce you to the specialised advice services of this person.

The suggestion is that you should telephone a special number on the morning of the race to discover the name of this dark horse that will sweep home to victory. When you telephone on that morning you are indeed given the name of a horse running that day, probably along with the request that you keep the information to yourself as it is so precious. You may be asked to identify yourself with a name and address or even just quote a code that was printed on your letter.

So, you either dip your hand in your pocket to back that horse or, if you are cautiously sceptical you watch that particular horse race that afternoon to see what happens without betting. Sure enough, the nag romps home to bring your winnings. “Wow, that was impressive”, you say. Now you’re ready to listen to what this guy says next time – in fact you’re quite prepared to pay for his information for the next “special bet”.

So, what exactly is going on here? Does this guy really have insider info? Does he have betting knowledge that is worth paying a good price for?

Well, think about this? Whilst it is difficult to pick outright winners, it is relatively easy in some races to pick three horses that will have the field covered between them. With some modest racing knowledge you can find races that you can be 95% sure one of the three (or even two) will win.

So the scammer finds a mailing list, of the kind that are readily available to rent from various sources, of people who have already bought various horse racing systems or tipster info. He knows then that these are addresses of people already predisposed to listen to racing advice. He sends the same letter to them all – the same letter that is except for the telephone number they are asked to call. He actually splits the letters into three groups with a different telephone number in each group.

Come the day of the race he has confirmed his selections in a race he knows he has a very high probability of picking the winner out of three – and of course he puts one of the three horses on each of the different telephone numbers.

With a mailing list of say 10,000 people he now has up to 3,333 very impressed punters who believe he can walk on water as far as picking winners goes. Well, maybe let’s say he has 1,000 if only about one in three take up his offer. How much more likely are these people now ready to dip into their pockets to pay good money for his next tip or to join his regular service? Would they pay more than they would have if he had sent them a typical invitation with no “proof” of his ability?

Maybe even that first info line is a premium rate number which helps him to recover some of his initial mailing cost regardless of the result of the race.

So, is this always a complete scam? Is it impossible that one day you really will get an invitation to share genuine “inside information”? I can’t say. Who knows – but what do YOU think? The next time you see one of these arrive through the letter box just think carefully before you ever part with any money to the sender.